Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis
Mortgage Rates End Losing Streak But Treasury Auctions Loom
The week ahead is very light in terms of economic data, that implies we should expect the stock market to continue to provide mortgage rates with directional guidance. If stocks rally, look for mortgage rates to move higher. If stocks fall, look for mortgage rates to improve. The only economic reports on the schedule in the week ahead that have the potential to move mortgage rates will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book, named for the color of its cover. The Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal information and data on current economic conditions across the country. The findings are not the views of Federal Reserve officials, instead, each Federal Reserve bank interviews key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
How Did The Employment Report Affect Mortgage Rates?
It is the first Friday of the month and that brings us the official government report on the labor market: The Employment Situation Report. This release provides four headline measures on the health of the jobs sector. Nonfarm Payrolls: totals the number of jobs that were added to or cut from employer payrolls in the prior month. Consensus Forecast: -100,000 vs. -131,000 in July (Private payrolls increased 71,000 in July and +41,000 expected today) Unemployment Rate: the percentage of working-age, mentally able-Americans who are jobless. Consensus Forecast: 9.6% of the labor force vs. 9.5% last month Average Hourly Earnings: the average amount of earnings per hour of labor performed. Consensus Forecast: +0.1% vs. +0.2% last month. Average Work Week: average amount of hours worked by an employee...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Before Jobs Data
What a boring day in the markets! Stocks added to yesterday's gains and bonds added to their losses. This pushed mortgage rates marginally higher. The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates are still in the 4.125% to 4.375% range for well-qualified consumers, but less lenders are offering rates below 4.25% today. If your lender is still willing to offer a rate below 4.25%, your closing costs are about 25bps higher today (0.25% of your loan amount). AQ's comments from yesterday still apply... We're not panicking over this sell off. There has been no change in our fundamental economic outlook, we see no new reason to be optimistic about a rapid recovery. What we witnessed today was a technical adjustment, an adjustment that could reverse course on Friday morning if the Employment Situation Report...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
New Mortgage Rate Lows Lost as Stocks Rally and Bonds Correct
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday. This is the message we communicated to readers... ATTENTION: Mortgage Rates Hit New Lows If you've been floating your loan or have yet to apply for a refinance because it just didn't seem worth the hassle, congratulations, mortgage rates hit new lows today, it's now worth the hassle! If you've refinanced in the last 20 months, there is a darn good chance your refinance option is back in the money, again! The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen into the 4.125% to 4.375% range for well-qualified consumers. Some lenders will even go as low as 3.875% if the borrower is willing to pay points. Although the 4.125% quote isn't being offered by the large retail banks (sorry retail L.Os), the smaller mortgage bankers and independent brokers do have...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
ATTENTION: Mortgage Rates Hit New Lows
If you've been floating your loan or have yet to apply for a refinance because it just didn't seem worth the hassle, congratulations, mortgage rates hit new lows today, it's now worth the hassle! If you've refinanced in the last 20 months, there is a darn good chance your refinance option is back in the money, again! The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen into the 4.125% to 4.375% range for well-qualified consumers. Some lenders will even go as low as 3.875% if the borrower is willing to pay points. Although the 4.125% quote isn't being offered by the large retail banks (sorry retail L.Os), the smaller mortgage bankers and independent brokers do have access to loan pricing that will allow them to offer new rate lows. So this brings us full circle on the advice we offered consumers...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
What Might Move Mortgage Rates in the Week Ahead?
Last week ended on a very sour note for mortgage rates... After a better than expected read on 2nd quarter GDP and a not so scary speech from the Federal Reserve Chairman, the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16.6 basis points and mortgage-backed securities prices fell significantly. This forced lenders to reprice for the worse, which increased mortgage rates. Although consumer borrowing costs rose by about 10 basis points on the week (0.10% of the loan amount), the best 30 year fixed mortgage rates remained in a range between 4.25% and 4.50%. The economic calendar is quite busy this week. The most influential report will be released on Friday; the Employment Situation Report. Because this data provides an in-depth look at the health of the driving force behind consumer spending, the labor...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Marginally Worse After Jobless Claims Data
Poor reads on housing and manufacturing helped mortgage rates move back to historic lows yesterday. However as the day progressed mortgage-backed securities prices fell from their highs and some lenders were forced to reprice for the worse. Rate sheet recalls were not broad based though. We had only one economic report this morning: Weekly Jobless Claims. Released by the Department of Labor, this report provides three timely metrics on the health of the labor market: Initial Jobless Claims: totals the number of Americans who filed for first time unemployment benefits in the previous week Continued Claims: totals the number of Americans who continue to file for benefits due to an inability to find a new job Extended and Emergency Benefits: totals the number of Americans who have exhausted their...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Mixed After Scattered Lender Reprices
Much like yesterday, mortgage rates rallied early this morning following weak housing data. Much like yesterday, mortgage rates came under pressure in the lunch hours today as mortgage-backed securities prices fell from intraday highs. Much UNLIKE yesterday, mortgage rates never recovered from that weakness heading into the market close today. The bad news isn't all that bad though.... While several lenders did reprice for the worse this afternoon, the majority of rate sheets escaped unscathed. This leaves mortgage rates close to the most aggressive levels of our lifetime. As for the lenders who did reprice for the worse (the bad news), adjustments to loan pricing simply cancelled out the improvements seen this morning, leaving consumer borrowing costs unchanged on a day over day basis...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Rally on Weak Economic Data
Mortgage rates began the week on a bad note but reversed course today following a weak read on the housing sector. The National Association of Realtors this morning released Existing Home Sales data for July. This data totals the number of previously owned homes in which a sale closed during the prior month. Since the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, home sales have fallen significantly and many economists have lowered their economic forecasts. This report was horrible. There is no other way to describe it... Existing Home sales fell by a record 27.2% in July to an annualized pace of only 3.83 million home sales. This was far short of expectations. Making matters worse, the June report was revised lower, from 5.37million to 5.26 million. The report also indicated that supply of homes...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates React to Data! Potentially Choppy Waters Ahead
From 10,000 feet the story of the week was " Mortgage Rates Rebound from Losing Streak ", but when you look closer, I think the bigger story was " Mortgage Rates React to Economic Data. Twice! ". Once for the worse, once for the better. Yesterday was the better and it was the reason why mortgage rates rebounded from their three day losing streak. Since mortgage rates have basically moved (lower) at will for the majority of the summer, I think we should stop and call attention to the times when mortgage rates actually react to economic data. Not because I feel the bond market is trying to tell us the economic environment is fundamentally worse or better (LONG TERM OUTLOOK) , but because I think the bond market is telling us it is looking for some directional guidance (SHORT...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates End Losing Streak After Reprices for Better
Mortgage rates extended their losing streak to three (3) days yesterday. The losses were brought on by a rally in the stock market. Mortgage-backed securities price moved steadily lower throughout the day before closing at their session lows. Most lenders ended up repricing for the worse as a result. Two economic data releases moved mortgage rates today. First up were Weekly Jobless claims. Released by the Department of Labor, this report provides three timely metrics on the health of the labor market: Initial Jobless Claims: totals the number of Americans who filed for first time unemployment benefits in the previous week Continued Claims: totals the number of Americans who continue to file for benefits due to an inability to find a new job Extended and Emergency Benefits : totals the number...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates on Losing Streak. Near Term Bottom Likely Hit
Mortgage rates are on a bit of a losing streak! Spurred on by a dramatic decline in benchmark debt yields, mortgage rates touched new lows last week. Actually I don't know if I should say mortgage rates hit new lows. Instead, maybe I should say "more lenders were offering record low mortgage rates last week". Yes a few lenders were spotted quoting 4.00% base rates, but the majority of the market was still pricing par mortgage loans at 4.25%. A well-qualified borrower's "best execution" combination of rates and points remained 4.375%. Whatever dip there was ended up being quick because lenders filled their production buckets fast and loan pricing started to suffer on Friday. Since then rates have slowly risen to levels just above record lows (still super aggressive...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Marginally Higher After Industrial Production Data. No Reason ...
The bond market has experienced a huge "flight to safety" over the last seven days. This "flight to safety" has led mortgage rates to new lows. The economic calendar was quite busy this morning. First out was Housing Starts & Building Permits from the Department of Commerce. Housing starts data estimates how much new residential real estate construction occurred in the previous month. Building Permits data provides an estimate on the number of homes planning on being built, a forward looking indicator of economic expansion. Recent reports on housing have been very disappointing, especially since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Today’s report showed a modest improvement in July but still less than economists had expected. Housing Starts rose 1.7% to a...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
What Might Move Mortgage Rates in the Week Ahead?
Mortgage rates fell to new record lows last week after the Federal Reserve announced they would reinvest principal paydowns of their agency mortgage-backed security portfolio into U.S. Treasuries. While this announcement did lead benchmark Treasury yields significantly lower, mortgage rates lagged greatly as lenders dealt with an influx of lock requests and new loan applications. Consumers who were floating their loan saw total borrowing costs decline by a few basis points, but the best rates are still between 4.25% and 4.625%. READ MORE ABOUT THE FED'S NEW POLICY INITIATIVE READ MORE ABOUT WHY MORTGAGE RATES LAGGED TREASURIES After an unexpected increase in mortgage rates on Friday, lenders improved consumer borrowing costs this morning, but only marginally. The best execution 30 year...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Move Lower as Flight to Safety Pours into Bond Market
The Federal Open Market Committee, the group of Federal Reserve governors who determines the direction of our nation's economic policy, released their statement yesterday. While the policy statement did not offer any major surprises, they reminded us that the economic recovery will be slow and announced a new operation where they will purchase Treasury debt in the open market. This action was aimed at preventing the spread of fear in the marketplace. After the Fed announced this decision, stocks sold off and benchmark interest rate moved significantly lower as another "flight to safety" poured into Treasuries. A flight to safety happens when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks, but do not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they allocate...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
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Rates, analysis and mortgage-hunting tips
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